Election in India is no less than a festival and the
culmination of this process is counting which results into a new government
formation. The current 4 state results [MP, Rajasthan, Delhi and Chhattisgarh]
are in some terms called as semi-final to the 2014 General Election. What makes
these elections unique?
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Firstly emergence of a new political outfit in
Delhi called Aam Aadmi Party. The party has tried to redefine the ground rules
on which elections are fought. In an debut election the party has bagged close 27seats
which not only created a blood bath in Congress camp but also politically
finished Sheila Dikshit. The Impact of AAP was such that it also put a big dent
into BJP’s dream of easy win on Delhi. This for a politically debutant party is
extraordinary and in some sense has rewritten the ground rules in political
slug fest that happens in election. This also opens hope that at least in urban
pockets of India there is a fair chance that such a party can succeed. In some
sense this is a history in making. I am hoping to see that this movement is
carried to its next cities with other good leaders coming to lead from front in
elections to make AAP dream a reality.
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Secondly two incumbent governments were
decimated/ white washed. One in Delhi and other in Rajasthan. This clearly is
an indication that politics cannot just survive on last minute doles. As a
leader you need to be connected with the people, understand the necessities of
the people and work towards it. High handedness of situations and arrogance
would only lead you to decimation.
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Thirdly it now seems like for some chief
ministers third time is possibly a possibility. This time it is for Shivaraj
Singh Chauhan and Dr Raman Singh. What is difference between these two compared
to Ashok Gehlot and Shiela Dikshit. Probably other than the Doles provided by
Shivaraj Singh and Dr Raman Singh, people really perceive that there is
something delivered in the ground level though not to the extent of what was
promised as doles but at least to an extent where people seem to believe they
deserve a third term. So it can be safely said that people clearly understand
the limitations of doles offered by politicians but what they would like to see
is ground level changes which would improve their living standards. They would
also like to see leaders connected with their people. There is forgiving for
not fulfilling all the promises but there is no forgiving for fulfilling none
of the promises.
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Fourthly from this election it now becomes
clearer that if you work you can be sure of pro incumbency. Best example is
Shiela Dikshit herself, she was heading Delhi for three terms and third one
being the worst where she herself was politically finished. Other than Shiela same
scenario of pro incumbency has been true for Navin Patanaik , Narendra Modi,
Nitish Kumar and now for Shivaraj Singh and Dr Raman Singh. So it is time for
political leaders to think clearly in terms of working towards a good delivery
model and not the dole model.
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In some terms it clearly is a little historic
that Indian democracy is maturing towards a delivery model based election model
from a single family/dynasty based selection model. I sincerely hope this
continues.
Coming to bigger points on national level leadership of two
major political parties how they acted.
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BJP which has this election won 4-0, I see
coming to terms of change from old guard to a new leadership group. This party
a year back was in quick sand with major big leaders running party from lutyens Circle of Delhi with not
so broad sense of victory. Today you see party changed differently with major
leadership issues put in cold storage, old guard completely moved to advisory
role and a more dynamic next generation in running helm of affairs. With this
change in leadership there is also seen some sort decentralization of power to state
level leaders. There is still lot more possible in BJP and I surely hope they
would do it. Above all there is Narendra Modi, the man has clearly strategized
the way BJP fights the election.
o
People today say there is no NaMo effect in
Delhi as BJP is short of Majority. But people seem to have forgotten that if
Vijay Goel was nominated as CM to be they would not have had any chance to
reach where they are today. It would have been AAP sweep, because for first few
days AAP was highlighting that alternative in form of Vijay Goel was no
different than the congress. It was last minute master stroke by Modi that BJP
made a change of CM to be as Harsvardhan.
o
Also another major strategy considering
popularity of Harshvardhan less, there
was a full page poster of NaMo on the day of election with Harshvardhan in side
reminding people of Delhi to vote for BJP.
o
NaMo knowing closeness of Rajasthan to Gujarat
very clearly strategized his Gujarat development model to be implemented in
Rajasthan. This close cooperation of NaMo and Vasundhara Raje was a super hit
in people.
o
Realizing that Shivaraj Singh and Raman Singh were
heavy weight in themself and could carry state on their own, NaMo has played a
good second fiddle to them supporting them by key rallies.
o
What people have to realize is there cannot be a
single strategy in elections it has to be different based on scenarios and
circumstances and a good leader who is supposed to lead general election of
2014 has to understand this. In this matter, I feel NaMo has done his job above
expectations. In politics denial is a tool which is often used. There is media,
there is opposition that says there is no NaMo wave, I tend to agree with them,
but do they agree that with no NaMo wave, if this is the effect, then what
should have happened with NaMo wave J..may
be sure they have no answer to this.
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Coming secondly
to Congress, what was that which made congress decimated in 3 states and able
to provide a little fight in 4th may be it lies within the congress itself?
There was a press announcement by Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi about
introspection within. I feel there is something within congress which it need
to look into
o
Dynastic politics has been a major contributor to
this country by Congress. People who could not sit in this due to their reduced
importance went and formed their own parties like Sharad Pawar, Jagan Reddy,
Mamta Banarjee etc. Due to it being dynastic in nature, it is mostly family
that matters in place of merits. This is so deep rooted in Congress that MLA’s
son becomes an MLA with or without merit and just by family name. This has put
the entire grassroot level organization into dogs. There are very less grass
root level leadership in congress. The term karyakartha is a forgotten
terminology in congress.
o
No decentralization of power. Due to a large
amount of dynastic nepotism, there is no decentralization of power. Even if one
wins the election under one leader, there is observed a last minute new chief
minister shipped from Delhi circle to lead the party. Also internal
factionalism is badly hitting the party. Due to lack of decentralization, the
CM in seat most often than not spends most of his time in lutyens Circle of
Delhi building support within party for his post and forgets to work and link
to people. This is one of the major reasons of anti incumbency for congress
governments.
o
State elections run with central agenda. The
speaker after other, all spoke about how much central government has given to
that state, while they were supposed to speak what they would do in case they
come to power and how that is better than the party which is incumbent party.
This situation in congress is happening primarily due to lack of clear focus on
state leadership.
o
Family not understanding new requirement of
people. It looks like both Rahul and Sonia has lost the connection with the
people. What they speak sounds much similar to what Indira and Rajiv used to
speak. India has moved leaps and bounds from this. This disconnect is clearly
showing in the speeches of these two leaders and major reason for lack of
public interest to them.
o
Medium to connect to people. All the opportunity
to connect to people and your supporters should be seen as welcome tools. But
in case of Congress this is opposite. They don’t like social media tools like twitter,
facebook, google etc. They see this medium as tools puncturing the old school
thoughts and they consider this untouchable. Also the level of feedback
available to leaders directly from these social media tools is extensive which
was fully undermined initially. Whereas other parties like AAP and BJP’s NaMo
have been very effectively using it to convey the message to people directly.
o
Not taking accountability to hand and working
for it. Till now congress feels that they need to go to election as a party
without PM/CM to be name announced. May be because they are badly trying to
save some people? This in today’s scenario will be a disaster more so when one
side your main contender has announced their PM to be name. To tackle leader of
such a level you need to get acts together and no amount of denial of NaMo wave
is going to make your act look intelligent. It is time that you take things in
hand and work for it.
What next post this election?
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Delhi seems already in trouble as no party has
clear majority.
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I think there will be frenzy within Congress to
make local alliances. May be it time to get back to old friends and start a new
alliance?
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BJP on its win may be going over boast? Need to
see over time and this may balance some gains they made.
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There may be a serious realization within major
state and central parties that a new combination is inevitable, but it is to be
seen over time if this combination is NDA or 3rd front supported
from outside by congress which congress is badly hoping for...
