2013 Semi-final elections: Is History Being Created in Indian Democracy?

Election in India is no less than a festival and the culmination of this process is counting which results into a new government formation. The current 4 state results [MP, Rajasthan, Delhi and Chhattisgarh] are in some terms called as semi-final to the 2014 General Election. What makes these elections unique?

·         Firstly emergence of a new political outfit in Delhi called Aam Aadmi Party. The party has tried to redefine the ground rules on which elections are fought. In an debut election the party has bagged close 27seats which not only created a blood bath in Congress camp but also politically finished Sheila Dikshit. The Impact of AAP was such that it also put a big dent into BJP’s dream of easy win on Delhi. This for a politically debutant party is extraordinary and in some sense has rewritten the ground rules in political slug fest that happens in election. This also opens hope that at least in urban pockets of India there is a fair chance that such a party can succeed. In some sense this is a history in making. I am hoping to see that this movement is carried to its next cities with other good leaders coming to lead from front in elections to make AAP dream a reality.

·         Secondly two incumbent governments were decimated/ white washed. One in Delhi and other in Rajasthan. This clearly is an indication that politics cannot just survive on last minute doles. As a leader you need to be connected with the people, understand the necessities of the people and work towards it. High handedness of situations and arrogance would only lead you to decimation.

·         Thirdly it now seems like for some chief ministers third time is possibly a possibility. This time it is for Shivaraj Singh Chauhan and Dr Raman Singh. What is difference between these two compared to Ashok Gehlot and Shiela Dikshit. Probably other than the Doles provided by Shivaraj Singh and Dr Raman Singh, people really perceive that there is something delivered in the ground level though not to the extent of what was promised as doles but at least to an extent where people seem to believe they deserve a third term. So it can be safely said that people clearly understand the limitations of doles offered by politicians but what they would like to see is ground level changes which would improve their living standards. They would also like to see leaders connected with their people. There is forgiving for not fulfilling all the promises but there is no forgiving for fulfilling none of the promises.

·         Fourthly from this election it now becomes clearer that if you work you can be sure of pro incumbency. Best example is Shiela Dikshit herself, she was heading Delhi for three terms and third one being the worst where she herself was politically finished. Other than Shiela same scenario of pro incumbency has been true for Navin Patanaik , Narendra Modi, Nitish Kumar and now for Shivaraj Singh and Dr Raman Singh. So it is time for political leaders to think clearly in terms of working towards a good delivery model and not the dole model.

·         In some terms it clearly is a little historic that Indian democracy is maturing towards a delivery model based election model from a single family/dynasty based selection model. I sincerely hope this continues.

Coming to bigger points on national level leadership of two major political parties how they acted.

·         BJP which has this election won 4-0, I see coming to terms of change from old guard to a new leadership group. This party a year back was in quick sand with major big leaders running party   from lutyens Circle of Delhi with not so broad sense of victory. Today you see party changed differently with major leadership issues put in cold storage, old guard completely moved to advisory role and a more dynamic next generation in running helm of affairs. With this change in leadership there is also seen some sort decentralization of power to state level leaders. There is still lot more possible in BJP and I surely hope they would do it. Above all there is Narendra Modi, the man has clearly strategized the way BJP fights the election.

o   People today say there is no NaMo effect in Delhi as BJP is short of Majority. But people seem to have forgotten that if Vijay Goel was nominated as CM to be they would not have had any chance to reach where they are today. It would have been AAP sweep, because for first few days AAP was highlighting that alternative in form of Vijay Goel was no different than the congress. It was last minute master stroke by Modi that BJP made a change of CM to be as Harsvardhan.

o   Also another major strategy considering popularity of  Harshvardhan less, there was a full page poster of NaMo on the day of election with Harshvardhan in side reminding people of Delhi to vote for BJP.

o   NaMo knowing closeness of Rajasthan to Gujarat very clearly strategized his Gujarat development model to be implemented in Rajasthan. This close cooperation of NaMo and Vasundhara Raje was a super hit in people.

o   Realizing that Shivaraj Singh and Raman Singh were heavy weight in themself and could carry state on their own, NaMo has played a good second fiddle to them supporting them by key rallies.

o   What people have to realize is there cannot be a single strategy in elections it has to be different based on scenarios and circumstances and a good leader who is supposed to lead general election of 2014 has to understand this. In this matter, I feel NaMo has done his job above expectations. In politics denial is a tool which is often used. There is media, there is opposition that says there is no NaMo wave, I tend to agree with them, but do they agree that with no NaMo wave, if this is the effect, then what should have happened with NaMo wave J..may be sure they have no answer to this.

·         Coming  secondly to Congress, what was that which made congress decimated in 3 states and able to provide a little fight in 4^th may be it lies within the congress itself? There was a press announcement by Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi about introspection within. I feel there is something within congress which it need to look into

o   Dynastic politics has been a major contributor to this country by Congress. People who could not sit in this due to their reduced importance went and formed their own parties like Sharad Pawar, Jagan Reddy, Mamta Banarjee etc. Due to it being dynastic in nature, it is mostly family that matters in place of merits. This is so deep rooted in Congress that MLA’s son becomes an MLA with or without merit and just by family name. This has put the entire grassroot level organization into dogs. There are very less grass root level leadership in congress. The term karyakartha is a forgotten terminology in congress.

o   No decentralization of power. Due to a large amount of dynastic nepotism, there is no decentralization of power. Even if one wins the election under one leader, there is observed a last minute new chief minister shipped from Delhi circle to lead the party. Also internal factionalism is badly hitting the party. Due to lack of decentralization, the CM in seat most often than not spends most of his time in lutyens Circle of Delhi building support within party for his post and forgets to work and link to people. This is one of the major reasons of anti incumbency for congress governments.

o   State elections run with central agenda. The speaker after other, all spoke about how much central government has given to that state, while they were supposed to speak what they would do in case they come to power and how that is better than the party which is incumbent party. This situation in congress is happening primarily due to lack of clear focus on state leadership.

o   Family not understanding new requirement of people. It looks like both Rahul and Sonia has lost the connection with the people. What they speak sounds much similar to what Indira and Rajiv used to speak. India has moved leaps and bounds from this. This disconnect is clearly showing in the speeches of these two leaders and major reason for lack of public interest to them.

o   Medium to connect to people. All the opportunity to connect to people and your supporters should be seen as welcome tools. But in case of Congress this is opposite. They don’t like social media tools like twitter, facebook, google etc. They see this medium as tools puncturing the old school thoughts and they consider this untouchable. Also the level of feedback available to leaders directly from these social media tools is extensive which was fully undermined initially. Whereas other parties like AAP and BJP’s NaMo have been very effectively using it to convey the message to people directly.

o   Not taking accountability to hand and working for it. Till now congress feels that they need to go to election as a party without PM/CM to be name announced. May be because they are badly trying to save some people? This in today’s scenario will be a disaster more so when one side your main contender has announced their PM to be name. To tackle leader of such a level you need to get acts together and no amount of denial of NaMo wave is going to make your act look intelligent. It is time that you take things in hand and work for it.

What next post this election?

·         Delhi seems already in trouble as no party has clear majority.

·         I think there will be frenzy within Congress to make local alliances. May be it time to get back to old friends and start a new alliance?

·         BJP on its win may be going over boast? Need to see over time and this may balance some gains they made.

·         There may be a serious realization within major state and central parties that a new combination is inevitable, but it is to be seen over time if this combination is NDA or 3^rd front supported from outside by congress which congress is badly hoping for...